Technical Report CSI-0003

Role of Connectivity and Clusters in Spatial Cyclic SIRS Epidemic Dynamics

K. A. Hawick

Archived: 2014

Abstract

Understanding infection propagation and sustain-ability behaviours of epidemics in spatially distributed populations remain difficult problems. We use an agent-based simulation to explore the roles of geometrical agent connectivity and component clusters in the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered; Susceptible cyclic SIRS model. We study the distribution of sizes of infected clusters on simple nearest neighbour connected systems as well as other connectivity geometries including a Moore neighbourhood and a radial proximity connectivity. We find that both recovery probability and neighbourhood connectivity size affect and shift the infection probability trends and lead to increased sustainability of a system wide epidemic. We discuss the implications for managing the health of large spatial populations, the statistics of large scale epidemics and the effect of more realistic system geometries.

Keywords: population health modelling; SIRS cyclic model; agent-based model

Full Document Text: PDF version.

Citation Information: BiBTeX database for CSI Notes.

BiBTeX reference:

@InProceedings{CSI-0003,
        Title = {Role of Connectivity and Clusters in Spatial Cyclic SIRS Epidemic Dynamics},
        Author = {K. A. Hawick},
        Booktitle = {Proc. IASTED International Conference on Health Informatics},
        Year = {2014},
        Address = {Gabarone, Botswana},
        Month = {1-3 September},
        Organization = {IASTED},
        Pages = {254-261},
        Doi = {10.2316/P.2014.815-025},
        Keywords = {population health modelling; SIRS cyclic model; agent-based model},
        Owner = {kahawick},
        Timestamp = {2014.08.17},
        Url = {http://digital.hull.ac.uk/reports/0003/csi-0003.html}
}